What it covers
Forecasts pick one future. Scenarios map several, assign them likelihoods, and identify the signals that tell you which one is arriving. Our current analysis tracks three drivers and how they interact:
Interest rates — the path of the 10-year Treasury and what it does to borrowing, housing, and business investment
Geopolitical conflict — the Iran war and its effects on energy prices, supply chains, and federal spending
The U.S. middle class — household balance sheets, real wages, and consumer demand across the near term and a five-year horizon
How it's maintained
The analysis is a living document, not an annual report. Major world events are reviewed daily; the scenarios, probabilities, and indicators are updated as the evidence changes. Subscribers and clients receive the current near-term outlook and the 2026–2031 five-year view.
Custom scenario work
The same method applies to your market. We build scenario sets for a client's own industry, region, or funding environment and fold them directly into the strategic plan, so the plan carries its own early-warning system.